Türkiye-Syria Earthquakes Assessment

Reconstruction Needs

This 27-page report outlines methodically the lost housing, commercial buildings, schools, hospitals, roads, and local utilities caused by the Türkiye-Syria earthquakes that began on February 6, 2023. The document is the result of over 3 weeks of work by a team of economists and involves hundreds of sources. The analysis, while drawing on available inspection reports and other information from the Turkish government, was undertaken by the consulting firm of Anderson Economic Group in the interests of furthering reconstruction and the welfare of the residents in the region. It represents the independent assessments of the three named authors, all of whom have experience in both the US and Türkiye.

As shown in Table 1 (below), we estimate that the physical reconstruction needs reach $102.9 billion in US dollars. The biggest single category is replacement of heavily damaged and destroyed housing, along with schools, hospitals, and shops in housing complexes. As documented in the report, inspections of thousands of buildings indicate that this category alone reaches over $79 billion. Damaged transportation and local utilities add another $5.6 billion. An allowance for durable goods (appliances and furniture) in destroyed houses adds $1.7 billion. Subsistence income for displaced families in the area, for six months, is $16.4 billion.

The estimates in the report make use of building inspections, aerial and satellite photographs, technical reports, and hundreds of eyewitness reports. The authors acknowledge that the actual costs could very well exceed the estimates once debris is removed and the full extent of damage is known.

“We want the world to help the residents in the disaster-struck areas of Türkiye and Syria,” said Patrick Anderson, the lead author of the report and the CEO of Anderson Economic Group. “This is the most rigorous, systematic assessment of the financing needed to help displaced residents to rebuild their cities and their lives.”

Lost physical infrastructure estimated in the report does not include emergency response, medical or burial expenses, nor the costs to fully replace livestock, household furnishings, clothes, and other personal items. “This is an underestimate of the true scope of loss, but it provides a good basis for knowing what it will take to rebuild,” said Anderson.

Access the full report here.

About the Authors

Mr. Patrick Anderson is Anderson Economic Group’s principal and CEO. His company is one of the most recognized boutique consulting firms in the United States, with decades of expertise in calculating both public and private economic damages. AEG has operated in both the United States and Türkiye.

Mr. Ilhan Geckil is managing director for EconOne Research, Inc in New York and an affiliated expert with Anderson Economic Group, LLC. Mr. Geckil has over two decades of experience in economics, finance, and economic damages assessment in both Türkiye and the US.

Dr. Gülseren Mutlu is a Turkish-American economist, former professor, and principal for Monies Wealth, LLC in Texas.