Forbes Covers AEG’s Pocketbook Model
The following excerpt is taken from a Forbes article (linked below) published November 4, 2016
“It’s the economy, stupid!”
Anderson Economic Group’s Patrick L. Anderson and Ilhan K. Geckil found that the most predictive way to determine who will win the presidency is to look at voters’ wallets.
Their Pocketbook Model considers five simple variables: unemployment, income growth, inflation, whether we’re at war, and third-party candidates. As importantly, it ignores poll data, approval ratings, campaign spending, debate performances, and advertising. It is intentionally unaware of the candidates’ names, personalities, and positions. Rather it assumes most Americans reward the incumbent party with their vote when the economy is good, and punish them when it’s not.
Since 1916, the Pocketbook Model correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in 22 of the 25 contests, including the last four elections. Who does it predict this year? Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Anderson and Geckil stress their model does not constitute an endorsement by any economist or researcher. It simply is a proven predictive model, and one that won them an outstanding writing award from the National Association for Business Economists. Further proof of its impartiality: Anderson is a prominent Republican from the state of Michigan having formerly held the positions as the state’s Deputy Budget Director and Chief of Staff, and was the Republican Candidate for Member of the University of Michigan Board of Regents.