The “Pocketbook Model,” created by the Anderson Economic Group, predicts the former secretary of state will win by 3 to 6 percentage points.
The data-driven “Pocketbook Model” ignores polls, debate performances, policy positions and candidates’ personalities. It looks at just five variables: unemployment, wage growth, inflation, whether the nation is at war, and third-party candidates.“As divisive, surprising and objectionable as campaigns often are, in the end voters go with their pocketbook,” says Patrick Anderson, CEO of Anderson Economic Group. This model starts with the assumption that most Americans generally reward the incumbent party with their vote when the economy is good, and punish them when it’s not.
Anderson says AEG’s model has predicted the largest vote-getter in 22 of the past 25 elections, and every election since 1980. At the moment, pocketbook issues are trending higher, which favors Clinton. The nation’s 5% unemployment rate is down from its peak of 10% in October 2009. Wages have risen five straight months and inflation remains tame.