Project Management-Oriented Employment Trends and Costs of a Skills Gap: 2019 to 2030
The Project Management Institute (PMI), a membership association for project management professionals, commissioned Anderson Economic Group to complete an employment and skills gap analysis for the fourth time. The study, which included domestic and international research and analyses, comprehensively assessed project-oriented employment by industry and the economic costs of failing to prepare managers to fill future job openings.
While many of the study elements remained similar to prior editions, we expanded some areas. We analyzed “projectized”occupations and industries from 2019 through 2030. The delivery of the study occurred in three phases.
In phase I, AEG identified 83 project management-oriented occupations. The analysis showed 16 of them ‘inside’ of the project management profession and 67 ‘outside.’ We also identified 26 industry sectors (3-digit NAICS codes) with significant employment in project management-oriented occupations.
In phase II, AEG analyzed projectized industry trends and conditions and analyzed demand in projectized sectors for 2019 through 2030. We then used global economic variables to model the projectized industries in 12 representative countries of the 8 PMI-defined regions. The representative countries included: China, India, Brazil, Colombia, Germany, United Kingdom, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Canada, USA, Nigeria, and South Africa.
In phase III, AEG estimated the possible economic value of unmet project management-oriented worker demand using GDP-related data and our estimates of projectized GDP by sector. We lastly used a Value at Risk (VaR) model to determine the potential economic cost associated with a shortfall of project managers in each of the eight managed regions and the United States.
Our findings illustrated the growing demand and high value of workers in project management-oriented occupations. The projections of demand showed a significant number of job openings caused by growth and/or workers leaving the occupation, generating demand for new, skilled workers.