November 2016 Edition
Cannabis Market Report

Anderson Economic Group has produced the most comprehensive report available on the economics of the cannabis industry, estimating market demand—for recreational marijuana and the use of marijuana-related products—in each of the 50 United States.

This report is in its Second Edition and was updated following results from the nine ballot initiatives in the 2016 election.

In this report, AEG’s public policy experts estimate:

Market demand in all 50 states and the nation as a whole;

State-level tax revenue on the business of producing, distributing, and selling such products;

Implications for consumer spending on other categories of goods, in particular alcohol beverages;

The legal status and political momentum for each state.

With changes in both public opinion and the legal landscape regarding marijuana, it is clear that future consumption of marijuana in the U.S. will be under a different legal regime than in the past. With this in mind, in 2015 we embarked on a serious effort to review the available data with numerous indicators that could provide us with much better information than what was available in the past. The results were encouraging:

In our first report, we correctly predicted legality – in terms of whether a given state would maintain or change its status quo, and our prediction of what such a change would be – in 42 of the 46 states where cannabis products were not fully legal until the time of the November 2016 election.

We have undertaken the most thorough effort yet attempted to estimate market demand for cannabis products from fundamental drivers of consumer behavior. Our report is the only comprehensive analysis produced by economic experts using proven, quantitative business valuation models.

We hope this analysis will find a ready audience among those who are investing in the emerging industry; attempting to estimate or design tax and regulatory regimes for it; selling potentially competing products, such as alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and medical therapies; and those with interests in public health and law enforcement.

Executive Summary: The Market for Legal Cannabis Products in the 50 United States