Anderson Economic Group Work

Economic Analysis & Revenue Forecasting: City of Cincinnati, Ohio


The City of Cincinnati, founded in 1788, is one of the leading cities in the Midwest, and is home to 320,000 people in the City itself, and over 1.6 million people in the metropolitan area. Cincinnati was a pioneer in incorporating planning in the government, and adopts a biennial operating budget of about $731 million, plus a capital budget of about $251 million. The main sources of funds are income and property taxes.

To ensure the City Council and Finance Department have the best available information on current and likely future tax revenue, the City retained Anderson Economic Group to provide forecasts of income and property revenue, as well as state-funded local government revenue, for the next six years. AEG evaluated the economy of Ohio and its relationship to the US economy, and the local economy, demography, geography, and fiscal structure. AEG then used a sophisticated statistical methodology to determine how economic fluctuations in the past had affected the most important revenue sources for Cincinnati.

AEG developed a dynamic forecasting model for the City, including an independent assessment of likely future economic conditions. Assuming stable fiscal policies, the resulting general fund revenues from major sources. Using this model, and professional judgement on the current state of the economy, AEG forecasted tax base and tax revenue for the City, based on reasonable policy and economic assumptions, for the succeeding six years.

AEG prepared a lengthy report, which was presented to the City Finance Department and to the City Council in a public hearing. The report included a discussion of the methodology, assumptions, and revenue forecasts.