COVID-19 Progression and Effects of Business Closures on Michigan’s Workers

Anderson Economic Group was retained to develop a comprehensive report detailing the best information available on both the course of the COVID-19 epidemic and its effects on the Michigan economy. The resulting memorandum provides a summary of COVID-19’s progression, considers the impact of the virus and stay at home orders on Michigan’s economy, and identifies large variances between the identification of “critical” and “essential” workers during this emergency.

The report finds that:

  1. Epidemiological models and current data suggest that COVID-19 infections have peaked in Michigan.
  2. Michigan’s “stay at home” order, along with decisions made by private citizens and employers, has resulted in a severe contraction in the State’s economy.
    We now have depression-level unemployment in Michigan, with over 16% of our workforce becoming unemployed in just three weeks. This will grow more sever as time passes, and will likely affect the incomes of 1.4 million Michigan workers and their families.
  3. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s memorandum on “essential” workers during the COVID-19 pandemic explicitly recognizes many workers who are not recognized in Michigan’s Executive Order.

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The original report is available here. A version updated in April, 2020 is available here, featuring graphical analyses and methodology. The most recent archived graphical analyses can be viewed here.