Practical Dynamic Programming for Business and Forensic Economics (AEG Working Paper, 2005-05)

Patrick L. Anderson

An AEG working paper, presented by Patrick L. Anderson at the 2005 NAFE conference in Dublin, Ireland.

Michigan Business Corporation Act Amendments: A Shareholder Rights Perspective

The Taubman Company is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with more than 30 premier shopping centers located in 13 states. A Michigan corporation, the Taubman Company trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “TCO.”

In late 2002 the Taubman Company became the target of a hostile takeover bid made by rival Simon Property Group (SPG). In defense, Taubman management and major shareholders announced their intent to vote their shares in opposition to the takeover. SPG claimed that this intention triggered an obscure provision of Michigan’s Control Share Acquisition Act, and a federal judge agreed, thus disenfranchising some 33.6% of TCO voting shares. However, the judge’s opinion did leave the door open for State Legislators to clarify the intent of the Act, which was originally passed to make Michigan businesses less prone to hostile takeovers.

The Taubman Company’s legal team retained Anderson Economic Group to assess the proposed and existing legislation. As part of this, Anderson Economic Group released “Michigan Business Corporation Act Amendments: A Shareholder Rights Perspective,” which was used by the Taubman Company to highlight the benefits of clarifying the law. AEG also analyzed shareholder support for the takeover offer, provided independent research on a 1998 restructuring of the Taubman Company incorrectly portrayed by SPG, and compiled information on the legislation and the related court ruling for distribution on www.AndersonEconomicGroup.com.

Additionally, AEG Principal Patrick Anderson testified at State House and Senate Committee Hearings about the need to clarify the Michigan Control Share Acquisition Act. Ultimately, this clarifying legislation became PA 181 and was passed by Michigan lawmakers, providing better protection of shareholder rights, and restoring the legislative intent of protecting Michigan Companies from hostile takeovers.

Business Economics & Finance: Using MATLAB, GIS, and Simulation Models

Patrick L. Anderson

Takes theoretical advances in economics and finance and applies them to the real world.

Site Selection for Luxury Auto Dealer: Nationwide Automotive Group


 

 

Our client was a large auto group that operates franchises that include Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Lincoln-Mercury, Mazda, Honda, Ford, Chrysler, Dodge, and Jeep in markets around the country.

Our client was awarded a desirable luxury vehicle franchise in one of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States. The manufacturer provided our client with a market report that suggested sites away from the growing population and high income areas. The group retained Anderson Economic Group to conduct a thorough site-selection analysis, including a site visit, analysis of prospective sites, demographic trending, past auto sales analysis, and projected sales for select locations.

Our analysis was conducted in three stages, each adding additional information and revising the list of potential candidates. Sites were screened based upon geography, road network, population, household income levels, projected growth in income-qualified households, luxury vehicle registrations in the nearby area, and the location of competitive dealerships and their statutory protest zones.

Basing our findings on the location of income-qualified buyers, we recommended a final cut of two prospective sites. One was selected on the basis of factors including income growth, population growth, historical sales of luxury vehicles, and the impact of competitor locations.

Automotive Market Study and Sales Assessment: Metro Detroit Automotive Dealers Association

Metro Detroit

Business and Brand Valuation Assessment: Leading Brewer and Importer


A leading importer and brewer of top-selling beer brands from Europe, Canada, and Mexico, asked for Anderson Economic Group to provide an analysis of a Nevada-based distributor’s valuation claims, and to help determine the information needed to prepare a complete valuation report.

Our report evaluated the market area of a distributor, its sales patterns, and the financial statements needed to prepare an assessment of damages or valuation report. We found the distributor to be missing important information from its valuation, and worked with our client to determine the strategy needed to complete an accurate valuation or lost profit calculation. Specific attention was given to the importance of brand values in the alcoholic beverage industry.

 

Sales and Financial Analysis for Expert Report: Alcoholic Beverage Distiller and Importer

Case Study:
Sales and Financial Analysis for Expert Report
Alcoholic Beverage Distiller and Importer
 


One of the nation’s leading distillers and importers of wine and liquor, with operations across the United States, retained Anderson Economic Group when a dispute arose with a former distributor in the State of Missouri. At issue was whether the distributor’s rights under franchise law were infringed on when its contract was terminated.

Anderson Economic Group used it extensive background in market analysis and franchised retailing, along with its knowledge of the three-tiered distribution system of alcoholic beverages in the United States, to prepare an expert report for use in litigation in US District Court. The report addressed the economic basis of a franchise agreement; the common-law understanding of the rights and obligations of each party; and whether the distiller and importer had properly terminated its franchised distributor. Using advanced economic and financial techniques and a sophisticated graphical and mathematic analysis of the available sales data, we were able to provide a report showing the relevant basis for termination, based on both legal and performance grounds.

Subsequent to the provision of the report, our client was offered favorable terms for a settlement.

Valuation of Beer Distributors: North American Beer Importer

Case Study:
Valuation of Beer Distributors
North American Beer Importer


Anderson Economic Group was retained by a beer importer to estimate the fair market values of several distributors of their product in the New York City area. By “fair market value,” we mean the price a willing buyer would pay to a willing seller, both possessing adequate information, for the economic value of the line of business. The valuation was done using the best available information, and well-accepted methods of estimating the economic value of a firm. However, certain unique characteristics of the market affected the value of each distributor, and adjustments were made for discounts and for premium factors of marketability, barriers to entry, scale, uniqueness of distribu­tion system in the state, per-capita consumption and other market patterns, “bottle law” factors, and dominance of brands.

We produced a report with sections for each distribu­tor, for use by the importer in improving its distribution network and in negotiations with its distributors.

Competitive Responses to Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards

Ilhan K. Geckil

Article in NABE by Ilhan Geckil on CAFÉ.

Likely Impact of Delphi Bankruptcy

On October 8, 2005, Delphi Corporation filed for bankruptcy protection in New York. Given the difficulties of the company, including unprofitable operations and repeatedly severe statements by the company’s management about its uncompetitive cost structure, especially its “legacy costs,” the action was not unexpected.

Delphi, the largest auto parts supplier in the U.S. (and number two worldwide), employs 50,600 workers in the United States and Canada. Headquartered in Troy, Michigan, Delphi is an integral component of Michigan’s economy and the national auto industry. Given its size, Delphi’s bankruptcy filing was widely expected to have far-reaching consequences for not only Delphi’s workers, but also the state and national economy, automakers, and auto parts suppliers.

The purpose of this analysis is to provide an early indication of the likely consequences of the Delphi bankruptcy. Given our past analyses of work stoppages, interruptions, blackouts, and other events that have shut down production in the United States; and our extensive knowledge of the automobile industry; we have background knowledge from which to draw some preliminary conclusions. This is a preliminary assessment of likely events that will be played out over a two or three-year period, and useful for planning and the assessment of risks. However, we caution readers that the future is, of course, unknowable.