November sees continued slower growth for legal U.S. cannabis products
- Monthly demand for legal cannabis products in the U.S. increased by 0.2% in November.
- Year-over-year demand remains strong, showing a 23.2% growth rate.
- The growth rate decreased between October and November, continuing a trend of slower growth when compared to the surge in spring and summer.
EAST LANSING, MI—February 2, 2020—According to Anderson Economic Group’s monthly AndCan®Index, growth in demand for legal cannabis products in the United States was slightly slower in November than it was in October. This continues a new trend of much softer demand growth than we saw in the spring and early summer. AEG’s experts produce this monthly measurement by closely following 50 state trends for both the recreational and medicinal marijuana markets. Monthly calculations are based on benchmarks developed when AEG first began assessing the market in 2015.
Kenan Cosguner, Anderson Economic Group’s lead analyst for this market, predicts that the latest round of federal COVID-19 relief spending (passed in late December) may boost cannabis demand in the first quarter. “We saw surging demand for cannabis products begin to subside when federal relief programs drew to a close last summer,” he explained. “Now that expanded unemployment insurance has been extended, new stimulus payments are being issued, and the second round of PPP loans is being released, the softening trend could reverse and the pace of growth may pick up again.”
Highlighting the slowdown in cannabis demand growth this fall, several states saw a significant decrease in recreational cannabis sales from October to November. Sales fell 13% in Colorado, 10% in Massachusetts, and 8% in Michigan.
For additional insight regarding AEG’s AndCan® Index and trends in the legal cannabis space, contact our industry experts online or at 517.333.6984.
Cannabis in the News
New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth have both expressed optimism in recent days about the odds of recreational marijuana legalization later this year. Several Democratic legislators that had previously opposed legalization lost their reelection bids to more progressive opponents, and legalization at the ballot in neighboring Arizona last year has only increased pressure to pass a bill in New Mexico.
The first West Virginians will be able to register for the state’s medical cannabis program on February 3rd, several years after the state legalized medical cannabis in 2017. The state has so far licensed 100 dispensaries to sell medical cannabis.
After Montana legalized recreational cannabis at the ballot in November, Idaho is now bordered by three states where recreational cannabis is legal, as well as a fourth–Utah–where medical cannabis is legal. Idaho state legislators have responded by advancing a proposed constitutional amendment preventing cannabis legalization. They hope to head off a ballot initiative campaign similar to those that succeeded in several states last year.
About the AndCan® Index
Launched in June 2017, the monthly AndCan Index reflects observed demand from U.S. states with legalized markets, and estimated latent demand in states without legal markets or lacking credible sales data. Both medical and adult-use products are included.
The AndCan Index builds upon:
- Over six years of analysis of the U.S. cannabis market by Anderson Economic Group consultants.
- A rigorous methodology that was presented in an award-winning 2020 article in the journal Business Economics.
- More than two decades of relevant experience with alcoholic beverages, franchised industries, and public policy.
Current benchmark: The AndCan Index is currently on the March 2019 benchmark, which reflects several methodological and data improvements over the 2017 benchmark. We expect to complete a 2021 benchmark revision in the coming months.
About Anderson Economic Group
Since its founding in 1996, Anderson Economic Group has become one of the nation’s premier boutique consulting firms, specializing in business valuation, expert testimony, and public policy. AEG has assisted governments, universities, large corporations, and businesses across the U.S. and abroad. All of the firm’s work is based on the core values of professionalism, integrity, and expertise.
AEG has offices in East Lansing, Michigan and Chicago, Illinois.
Lisa Wootton Booth
AEG—East Lansing, Michigan