Measuring U.S. Demand for Legal Cannabis Products
Anderson Economic Group’s AndCan Index is a monthly report that monitors U.S. demand for cannabis products in all 50 states. The AndCan Index was launched in June 2017. It builds upon (1) three years of comprehensive coverage of the U.S. cannabis market and assessments of demand by Anderson Economic Group, (2) a rigorous methodology that has been presented in technical papers at two conferences of professional economists, and (3) more than two decades of business consulting experience worldwide. Comments from other economists and additional research by Anderson Economic Group consultants have also been incorporated into the AndCan Index.
For the most recent release of the AndCan Index, see https://www.andersoneconomicgroup.com/tag/andcan/.
The interactive visualization below is a historical representation of the AndCan Index since January 2015.
How the AndCan®Index is constructed
The AndCan Index originates from tens of thousands of data points, including recreational and medical sales in states where cannabis products sales are legal (where available for Alaska, California, Colorado, Oregon, Nevada, and Washington). In addition, it includes calculations for the latent (unobserved) demand in emerging markets across the remainder of the 50 states.
Adjustments are made based on the concentration of cannabis in products that are sold both medically and recreationally—a highly-potent marijuana cigarette is indicative of greater demand for cannabis than a low-potency, cannabis-oil-infused beverage, for instance—as well as the market-share of these products, and pricing differences from state-to-state.
In those states where legal sales are not available, we estimated latent demand from survey data on marijuana usage, alcoholic beverage consumption and spending, and demographic data. Estimates are made for each state based on that state’s unique data.
Monthly data on actual purchases in states where the products are legal are the primary drivers of month-to-month variation in the AndCan Index. As states change their laws, AndCan captures the transition from latent demand to observed demand without the distortion that would be caused by incorrectly assuming that all taxable sales in newly-legalized states represent growth in consumer demand.
Historical data dates back to the start of 2015. All values are indexed to the period of the November 2016 U.S. general election. The index structure means that any value greater than 100 indicates that the market demand has increased since the baseline period of November 2016.
Benchmark Revision Available
The AndCan Index: 2019 Benchmark Revision is the first benchmark revision since the original publication of the index.
The level of the AndCan Index represents aggregate nominal demand for recreational and medical marijuana in the United States. In both the 2017 and 2019 benchmarks, the index is set at a level of 100 for November 2016, and contains data beginning in January 2015.
The original methodology for the index, and the methodology we us in this benchmark revision, estimates demand in states (and portions of states) that have not yet legalized marijuana for medical or recreational use, as well as those in which some such sales are legal. Furthermore, we include states where data are not yet available from government sources, but where some sales are legal. For more information on the report, see the benchmark revision at andersoneconomicgroup.com.